Since the Super League war that tore rugby league apart in the mid-1990s, the AFL seized its moment and surged ahead, cementing itself as Australia’s dominant sporting code. For years, rugby league was left to rebuild from the chaos — fragmented, uncertain, and fighting for stability. But the tide is turning, and the landscape is changing fast. The National Rugby League (NRL) has regained its footing — stronger, smarter, and more ambitious than ever — and there are growing signs it could soon overtake the AFL in popularity, reach, and cultural influence.

One of the biggest drivers behind the NRL’s rise is its growing national and international appeal. While the AFL remains concentrated in the southern states, the NRL’s footprint stretches across Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands. The inclusion of the Dolphins in 2023, and the potential expansion to Papua New Guinea, signal a genuine push for global relevance — something the AFL has never truly achieved.

Rugby league’s on-field product also thrives in the modern media era. Its faster pace, shorter games, and constant action make it perfectly suited to streaming and social media highlights. The State of Origin series consistently ranks among the most-watched television events in the country, often eclipsing AFL finals in viewership.

Financially, the NRL is no longer the underdog. Massive broadcasting deals, booming memberships, and rising sponsorship from global brands have placed the code on solid ground. At the same time, investment in women’s rugby league and grassroots development is broadening the audience and building a more inclusive foundation.

Perhaps most importantly, the NRL tells a story that resonates. It’s a working-class game that thrives on authenticity and passion. The rise of Pacific Islander stars, the emotion of Origin, and the spectacle of grand final week all give rugby league a cultural heartbeat that few sports can match.

While the AFL remains a powerhouse, the momentum is clearly shifting. With its expanding reach, sharper media presence, and deep connection to fans across diverse communities, the NRL is no longer chasing — it’s closing in fast.

If current trends continue, rugby league won’t just rival the AFL — it might soon surpass it.